We Study Social Polls

Social polls are informal polls published on social media platforms.

Poll Example

Polls on X (formerly Twitter) provide valuable insights into public opinion, but their results are often biased. Here, we measure these biases and correct them to estimate support for presidential candidates (see our methodology).

Who's Winning?

Averages over the most recent month before the election day.
TrumpBiden
  • Social polls:
  • 73% vs 31%
  • De-biased social polls:
  • 52% vs 80%
  • Traditional polls(from 538):
  • 49% vs 51%

Timeline

Explore the evolution of support for Trump and Biden according to social polls and traditional polls.

Description 2
Description 1

Map

View an interactive map of how states are projected to vote based on polls published on X.